冯鹏程的博客复制网址 | 设为主页| 加入收藏

2014年3月31日，对外经济贸易大学中国资本运营研究中心主任冯鹏程教授就阿里巴巴在海外上市的话题接受国家英文周刊的采访，冯鹏程教授指出：虽然高科技企业通常会在纳斯达克挂牌，但是这次阿里巴巴更可能会选择在纽交所上市。经过ipo后，阿里的市值有可能会增加15-16个亿。在美国挂牌有助于阿里巴巴成为世界知名的企业，更有助于阿里获得大量的资金整合他的竞争对手。

《国家英文周刊》：（冯鹏程）Alibaba IPO Looms

（来源：《国家英文周刊》 2014.3.31  ）

China's e-commerce market leader is planning on a U.S. listing. How will this change the company's future?

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., China's largest e-commerce vendor, confirmed on March 16 that it will initiate its long-awaited initial public offering (IPO) in the United States. The news sent shockwaves across the U.S. financial community as it is bound to bring a huge windfall to U.S. underwriters and investors.

"The decision will make Alibaba a more global company and enhance its transparency, as well as allowing it to continue to pursue our long-term vision and ideals," the Hangzhou-based e-commerce giant said in a statement.

The company, however, did not specify which bourse it will choose to float its shares, or give a detailed timetable.

Although Alibaba is an e-commerce juggernaut in China, it is not so well known in the United States.

Blending many of the functions of eBay, Amazon and PayPal, Alibaba stands out as unique among Chinese Internet companies. Even though it doesn't directly sell products online, it is highly profitable because merchants who use its websites pay for advertising and other additional services.

Alibaba operates two of the nation's most popular online shopping services—Taobao.com, a customer-to-customer (C2C) marketplace for numerous startup businesses, and Tmall.com, a business-to-customer (B2C) platform.

The business empire has thrived in years past as Chinese consumers increasingly flock to online marketplaces rather than traditional brick-and-mortar stores.

In the fiscal year ending on March 31, 2013, the two platforms' total transaction value exceeded 1 trillion yuan ($163 billion), according to Alibaba.

Based on an average formulated by 12 analysts, Alibaba is estimated to have a market value of $141 billion. With that valuation, and Yahoo selling half its stake, as previously agreed, the IPO could raise more than $17 billion, according to Reuters.

Feng Pengcheng, Director of the China Research Center for Capital Management at the Beijing-based University of International Business and Economics, told Beijing Review that his forecast of market value stood at $150 billion-$160 billion, while he expects the IPO to raise $15 billion-$16 billion.

The company's proposed U.S. listing is the most anticipated IPO since social networking site Facebook raised $16 billion in 2012. If successful, it will be the largest U.S. IPO ever launched by a Chinese company and one of the biggest IPOs in U.S. history.

Why the U.S.?

Early in July 2013, Alibaba was reported to have almost finished their IPO preparations, and the only thing that remained to be decided was where to list—the United States or Hong Kong.

Hong Kong was supposed to be top choice for Alibaba.

Hong Kong regulators, however, refused to approve Alibaba's partnership structure, in which a group of insiders, including founder Jack Ma, control the board despite owning a minority share. Such a corporate structure is allowed in New York and already used by Internet giants Facebook and Google, among others.

The Hong Kong exchange's rules prohibit dual classes of shares and other arrangements that give shareholders more than one vote per share as it defies the "one-share-one-vote" standard applied in Hong Kong.

Alibaba pinned its hopes on a review of Hong Kong's shareholding rules that would keep the door open for a listing in the city. The public consultation, however, moved quite slowly.

While Alibaba waited for Hong Kong regulators to make a decision, smaller Chinese Internet companies such as JD.com and Sina Weibo were forging ahead with their own U.S. listing plans.

JD.com, China's second largest e-commerce company following Alibaba, announced a U.S. listing of its shares on January 30.

On March 15, China's twitter-like micro-blogging service Sina Weibo filed to raise $500 million via a U.S. IPO.

Finally, after nearly one year of talks with Hong Kong's regulatory stock exchange officials, Alibaba lost patience.

Alibaba's choice is a blow to Hong Kong's financial industry, in terms of lost prestige, fees and trading volumes.

Hong Kong's loss is the U.S. financial industry's gain. The deal has the potential to bring in about $300 million in advisory fees alone for the banks involved, based on an estimated 1.75 percent commission.

Feng said Alibaba is more likely to choose New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) over the Nasdaq, although the latter used to be the bourse that hi-tech firms prefer when floating onto the stock market.

In 2013, the number of hi-tech firms that chose to be listed in NYSE surpassed that in Nasdaq for the first time, among which was the high-profile IPO of Twitter.

"Due to several technical glitches that occurred in the Nasdaq during the past two years and NYSE's relentless efforts to court hi-tech firms, many have chosen NYSE over Nasdaq. So far as I know, the NYSE also made publicity efforts to court Alibaba. So I think it will win over Alibaba in the end," Feng told Beijing Review.

Pros and cons

Analysts called Alibaba's move to list in the United States timely, given the slow erosion of its dominance by Tencent Holdings Ltd., which has rolled out mobile payment services via its WeChat instant messaging app and offers services that overlap with Alibaba's.

Feng told Beijing Review the U.S. listing will turn Alibaba into a world-famous company, and help it combat competitors.

"The three leading Chinese Internet companies—search engine Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent—are in fierce competition to grab as much market share in the mobile Internet arena as possible. After the IPO, Alibaba will raise a large amount of capital that can be used to further expand its territory," said Feng.

"Mobile Internet business layout requires hefty investment. Being listed is just like loading up on bullets to get ready for the fight. The impending IPO will definitely increase the competitiveness of Alibaba so that it can lock horns more aggressively with Baidu and Tencent," he said.

Every coin has two sides, however. A listing in New York means strict scrutiny from U.S. regulators and class-action lawyers. The company also has to live with more pressure from investors in terms of profitability, said analysts.

Feng said Alibaba will face challenges from three areas.

"Firstly, Alibaba will be required to disclose information to investors, which could be used by its competitors against it in future competition. Secondly, getting listed means Alibaba has to face more pressure in profitability. Some strategic plans that are good for the company's long-term development but bad for short-term financial performances may have to be abandoned due to profitability concerns," Feng said. "Besides, the United States has the strictest scrutiny over its financial markets compared to anywhere else in the world."

Alibaba is likely to become a frequent target of class-action lawsuits once it gets listed in the United States.

Alibaba's C2C website Taobao.com was frequently rocked by allegations that some small retailers on its website were selling counterfeits. Although Alibaba adopted various measures, they failed to have the desired effect and negative news reports on the website were a frequent occurrence.

In the United States, class-action lawsuits have a low threshold and can yield high profits. Many institutions and investors that rely on this system to make a living had their eyes on Chinese companies that were recently listed in the United States, said Sun Feiran, a lawyer from the Shanghai-based DeBund Law Offices.

Most startup businesses in the C2C platform Taobao.com lack legal expertise. The small vendors who sell counterfeits or steal other sellers' pictures will be targeted by Alibaba in the near future, said analysts.

"I think the prospectus of Alibaba will mention this risk," said Sun. "Alibaba will impose harsher punishment on sellers that are engaged in any copyright infringement or sales of counterfeits. If it doesn't do anything about those sellers, it will lead to the destruction of the company after it gets listed. Apparently, some small sellers will be weeded out and the good ones will be kept."

Sun also thinks Alibaba's Singles Day online shopping festival may be canceled.

Dubbed Singles Day, November 11 means massive discounts for online shoppers in China and has become the country's biggest online shopping festival, similar to Cyber Monday. On November 11, 2013, Alibaba reported a transaction value as high as 35 billion yuan ($5.6 billion).

"Too many discounts may lead to anti-dumping lawsuits," said Sun. "Alibaba's U.S. lawyers may suggest the company cancel the shopping festival."

The Alibaba Umbrella

Alibaba Group was founded in 1999 by 18 people led by Jack Ma, a former English teacher from Hangzhou, east China's Zhejiang Province. Alibaba Group's major businesses include:

- Taobao.com—China's most visited customer-to-customer (C2C) online shopping website

Taobao was launched in May 2003. It is currently one of the world's top 10 most visited websites, according to Alexa.com, and was the top mobile commerce app in China in January 2014, according to iResearch.

- Tmall.com—China's leading online business-to-customer (B2C) mall

Tmall was launched in April 2008 as part of Taobao Marketplace and became an independent platform in June 2011. It was the largest B2C online retail platform in China based on the value of goods transacted as of September 2013, according to iResearch.

- Alibaba.com—Leading global wholesale business-to-business (B2B) platform

The original business of Alibaba Group founded in Jack Ma's apartment, Alibaba.com is the leading platform for cross-border wholesale trade serving millions of buyers and suppliers around the globe. Through Alibaba.com, small businesses can sell their products to companies in other countries and source merchandise from abroad.

- AliExpress.com—Popular international e-marketplace for consumers

Launched in April 2010, AliExpress is a retail marketplace targeted at consumers worldwide, many of them located in the United States, Canada and emerging markets including Russia, Brazil and Ukraine.

- Alibaba Cloud Computing (aliyun.com)—Developer of platforms for cloud computing and data management

Established in September 2009, Alibaba Cloud Computing develops highly scalable platforms for cloud computing and data management.

- Alipay.com—Leading online and mobile payment solution in China

Launched in December 2004, Alipay provides an easy and secure way for individuals and businesses to make and receive payments online and on mobile phones. Alipay is the payment solution supporting the online and mobile versions of Taobao and Tmall, and is used by leading online merchants in the retail, digital entertainment, telecoms and travel industries. Consumers also use Alipay for daily activities such as paying restaurant, utility, healthcare and credit card bills. Alipay offers an online payment solution to help retailers in North America and Europe sell directly to consumers in China and supports transactions in 14 major foreign currencies.

(Source: Alibaba Group)

原文链接：

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/business/txt/2014-03/31/content_610758.htm

《企业财富工场特训营》：

http://wenku.baidu.com/view/a3e0e826b4daa58da0114ac9.html

电话：010-64495082，15011006695

Q Q： 542328137，1668972957

邮箱：uibe_zbyy@sina.com

新浪微博：http://weibo.com/fengpengcheng

腾讯微博：http://t.qq.com/uibefengpengcheng

授课视频链接地址：http://www.soku.com/search_video/q_冯鹏程_orderby_2